Indices
Dow 45,400, -144, or -0.32%.
Nasdaq 21,700, +245or +1.14%.
S&P 6,481, +21, or +0.33%.
MSCI EAFE 2727.86, +6.77or +0.25%.
USD10Y 4.086%, -14.1bpor-3.34%.
WTI Crude $61.87 bbl, -$2.14or-3.34%.
Markets Waiting on Fed
The week was dominated by weak labor statistics across the board; the August JOLTS survey revealed the second fewest number of job openings available since the pandemic, private payrolls missed expectations by a third and were down nearly 50% month-over-month, jobless claims spiked to their highest levels since mid-June and the August jobs report (non-farm payrolls) showed only 22,000 jobs created last month. Perhaps even more worrisome was the second revision to June Non-Farm payroll which now reflects a loss of 13,000 jobs, the first monthly job losses since December of 2020. The CME Fed Watch tool now assigns a 92% probability of a 25bp rate cut at the Fed’s meeting next week and an 8% probability of a 50bp cut.
The Upcoming Week: Sep 8 – Sep 12
The Producer Price and Consumer Price Indices will be the last inflation data points before the Fed meets on September 17 and will have to demonstrate a considerable acceleration of prices to give the Fed pause.
Oracle (ORCL) and Adobe are the only companies of note reporting this week.
Economic Calendar
Monday – N/A. Earnings: N/A.
Tuesday – N/A. Earnings: Oracle (ORCL).
Wednesday – August Producer Price Index (PPI). Earnings: N/A.
Thursday – Initial Jobless Claims, August Consumer Price Index (CPI). Earnings: Adobe (ADBE).
Friday – September Consumer Sentiment. Earnings: N/A.
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