Indices
- Dow 46,758 (new record close), +510 or +1.10%.
- Nasdaq 22,780, +296 or +1.32%.
- S&P 6,716 (new record close), +71 or +1.07%.
- MSCI EAFE 2810.41, +68.62 or +2.50%.
- USD10Y 4.119%, -6.8bp or -1.62%.
- WTI Crude $60.88 bbl, -$1.64 or -2.62%.
Government Shuts Down, Markets Unconcerned
Despite a federal government shutdown and limited economic data, markets pressed higher last week. All three major U.S. indices closed at new record highs, with both the Dow and S&P 500 ending the week at all-time levels.
Economic data releases were sparse due to the shutdown. The ADP Private Payrolls report showed weaker-than-expected job gains, though this series often diverges from the official U.S. non-farm payrolls data. As a result of the shutdown, several key reports—including weekly jobless claims, non-farm payrolls, the unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings—were delayed.
Sector performance was mixed. Healthcare led the way, surging +6.6% after the announcement of a new direct-to-consumer drug portal, TrumpRx. Technology followed closely, rising +2.7% for the week, powered by continued strength in Nvidia (NVDA), which gained +5.3%.
Looking Ahead: October 6 – 10
This week’s focus will be on the Federal Reserve’s September meeting minutes, set for release on Wednesday. Investors will be watching closely for hints about the pace of future rate cuts. As of this writing, the CME FedWatch Tool places the probability of another rate cut at 95.7% during the Fed’s next meeting late this month.
On the earnings front, Delta Air Lines and PepsiCo will report results on Thursday. However, the following week marks the start of third-quarter earnings season, with major banks set to headline early reports.
The weekly jobless claims release is also scheduled for Thursday—provided the government reopens in time for normal data publication.
What This Means for You
- Market resilience: The market’s calm reaction to the shutdown reflects investors’ focus on longer-term fundamentals rather than short-term political events.
- Limited data, same discipline: While data delays can create temporary uncertainty, they rarely change the broader investment picture. We continue to monitor developments and make thoughtful, measured adjustments as needed.
- Staying the course: With equities at record highs and monetary policy turning more supportive, maintaining diversification and a long-term focus remains the best strategy in the current environment.
Economic Calendar
- Monday – N/A. Earnings: N/A.
- Tuesday – N/A. Earnings: N/A.
- Wednesday – Fed September meeting minutes. Earnings: N/A.
- Thursday – Initial Jobless Claims*. Earnings: Delta Airlines (DAL), PepsiCo (PEP).
- Friday – October Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment. Earnings: N/A.
*Pending the end of the government shutdown
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Disclaimer: This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any of the securities listed above. I personally, or a family member whose account I control, have positions in the following securities/assets...Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, ACHR, BITB, HPE, ITIB, NVDA, and RIVN.