Indices
- Dow 44,342, -29or -0.07%.
- Nasdaq 20,895, +310 or +1.51%.
- S&P 6,296, +37 or +0.59%.
- MSCI EAFE 2640.63,-7.76 or-0.29%.
- USD10Y4.432%, +0.9bp or +0.20%.
- WTI Crude $67.34 bbl, -$1.11 or-1.62%.
Benign Economic Data See Markets Grind Higher
There were three events this week that pushed the markets (especially tech, the Dow 30 notwithstanding) higher; back-to-back benign retail and wholesale inflation reports on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively, and the news post close Monday that the administration would grant previously unexpected export licenses for Nvidia to ship its H20 microchips to China.
Despite the encouraging inflation data, the probability markets are assigning only a 4.7% chance of a rate cut at the Fed’s month end meeting. The probability of at least one rate cut at their September meeting has fallen to 60.7% down from 69.6% one month ago.
The Upcoming Week: July21 – July 25
The economic calendar is light this week. Q2 earnings season continues however, with Magnificent 7 members Alphabet (GOOGL) and Tesla (TSLA). Other notables include General Motors (GM), Coco-Cola (KO), American Airlines (AAL) and Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG).
Economic Calendar
- Monday – June Leading Economic Indicators. Earnings: N/A.
- Tuesday – June Consumer Price Index (CPI). Earnings: Coca-Cola (KO), General Motors (GM).
- Wednesday– N/A. Earnings: Alphabet (GOOGL), Tesla (TSLA), Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG), CSX (CSX).
- Thursday – Initial Jobless Claims, July Flash S&P Services and Manufacturing PMIs. Earnings: American Airlines (AAL)
- Friday –June Durable Goods Orders. Earnings: N/A.
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Disclaimer: This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any of the securities listed above. I personally, or a family member whose account I control, have positions in the following securities/assets...Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, ACHR, BITB, HPE, ITIB, NVDA, and RIVN.